Wednesday, June 10, 2009

How Could They Possibly Sell for More Than I'm Willing to Pay?

Megan tells us "Why I Think the Housing Bubble Has Not Yet Bottomed" because there are a few retards out there who, incredibly, want Megan's opinion on things.

The reason housing prices haven't bottomed, she says, is because the people selling this condo are asking more than it sold for 4 years ago. Naturally, she's not looking at the multitude of graphs showing the national housing price is still well above historical norms. Nope, she's armed with an anecdote. For those too lazy to click, the listing is in the heart of a good neighborhood in the middle of DC.

Now, for someone so convinced housing prices haven't bottomed, it's a bit odd she's looking at house listings. That's, of course, not the stupidest thing she is doing, though. The stupidest thing is here is that she doesn't know anything about housing prices save that they're down. Anyone who is a modicum of informed would know that they're down in some areas but relatively unchanged in others. Those other areas typically being in the center of major metropolitan areas; you know, like downtown DC. To wit, commenter Jim:

Are you familiar with comparable sales? Looks like the going rate for a 900-1000 sqf 2 bed 1 bath condo within a couple blocks of this one range from 485-540K over the last 6 months (6 sales). Seems to me they are already at the low end of this range. Perhaps their realtor knows the market better than you do?
An expert knowing more than Megan? NEVER!

Oh, and thanks, Jim. As soon as I read it I knew she had to be wrong along these lines. I'm glad I didn't have to do the legwork myself to prove it.


ChicagoEd said...

Didn't Megan have an Encyclopedia McArdle post a little while ago where she called someone out for--allegedly--plagerizing? Well, here's Megan totally, absolutely, entirely, utterly, wholeheartedly, superciliously, humongously ripping off Irvine Housing Blog. Gee, who else posts real estate ads, criticizes the asking price, and then points out that there's a bubble going on? Well, Megan, I hate to inform you that Orange County is a lot different from D.C. and Manhattan. (Megan's already posted how Manhattan is immune from real estate bubbles numerous times--but not now D.C.) But Irvine Renter actually does a few minutes' work and, in backing up his point that sellers' prices are unrealistic, actually looks to comparison sales--often on the same street. Megan of course, being a dumb fuck, just thinks because someone who bought real estate four years ago and is now selling it at the same price he bought it at--well, that's too much money--so the property is over-valued. What a stupid douche.

(BTW, note the adverbs. I recently enrolled in the McArdle School for Excellence in Journalism. How long before I'm posting at teh Atlantic?)_

clever pseudonym said...

I don't know the first thing about real estate, so is Megan using the price of one condo in D.C. as representative of the state of the entire housing market reasonable? And don't property sellers usually list prices much higher than they realistically expect to receive once they finally find a buyer?