Friday, July 17, 2009

Shorters

someone has been making me feel all pleasant and non-snarky, but that doesn't mean Megan should get a pass.

More Thoughts on the Health Care Surtax:

But at some point, that changes. In the highest paying zip codes, the effective average combined tax rate (not the marginal rate) on many affluent people is already well over forty percent--I shelled out more than 40% of my really non-lavish journalist's salary when I lived in Manhattan. The repeal of the Bush tax cuts will push some taxpayers into the 50+percent total tax bracket. Is America ready?
For tax rates that were exceeded for roughly half of the last century? Yes.
She still thinks the fact that rich people try not to pay their fair share means they shouldn't have to pay, too.

CIT RIP:

Did you know this particular collapse of a financial giant might affect my holiday shopping options? Holy fuck!

On Income and Consumption Inequality:
I broadly agree with Will that consumption inequality, not income inequality, is what matters. If the rich have access to broad classes of goods that the poor can't have, I find this worrying. On the other hand, if the problem is that Bill Gates has a really awesome 80 inch flat panel television, while the poor have to be content with a 32 inch CRT, well, I can't say my heartstrings are plucked very tight by this injustice. So it's important to know what the real differences are.
Dear stupid, what about access to, say, the latest medical treatments, versus getting to die of cancer?
income inequality figures exclude both taxes and government benefits. Things like the EITC and Section 8 vouchers really have made a quite substantial improvement in the ability of the poor to consume.
....


Sorry, I blacked out after hitting my head too hard. Section 8 housing means poor people can live next to rich yuppies and totally live like them, because it comes with an extra 2 grand a month that, by law, has to be spent frivolously.
So I don't think we actually know how much of a difference consumer credit made to equalizing consumption between rich and poor. I suspect that the continued mechanization of formerly labor-intensive tasks has made a greater difference, but then you'd expect me to say that. The data we want will not be available for several years, especially since period immediately following the financial crisis will be very atypical*, and therefore not useful in assessing the longer term trend.
* Before you accuse me of cherry-picking, I expect that the data following the financial crisis will actually show income and consumption inequality falling, because financial crises tend to make bigger relative cuts in the income of the wealthy. That doesn't mean that they "suffer more" in any meaningful sense--losing 5% of a $30,000 annual salary is almost certainly a greater hardship than losing 25% of $300,000. But the numbers will still show shrinkage.
How charitable of her. Btw, my own anecdotal experience says that rich people are consuming about the same amount, while spending less, because prices on many luxury consumables have fallen. Cash is king at times like this, and who do you think has it?

Markets in Everything:
I'm skeptical of this, not because I feel that political groups are above selling their services, but because I'd be shocked if one of them was actually stupid enough to put it in a letter. On the other hand, crazier things have happened.
But it's a market, so it's ok.
Also, does that selection have three hands, or one?

Learning to (un)Love Leverage:

A story about Megan:
"Equity," he solemnly informed me, after a few minutes of bewildered guessing. "Debt payments are capped. Equity has unlimited upside, while debt payments are capped. [sic - close that quote, Megan]
This is conventional wisdom at America's business schools, and over the next few years, I definitely lived it. We borrowed money for school, for living expenses, for books. I bought a car, went skiing, went to Mexico on spring break. Why shouldn't we? We were "consumption smoothing"; in a few years, we'd be making more than $100K, so why not spend a little of that now?
Obviously, this was fucking stupid. Spending money you hope to theoretically earn in the future is idiotic enough, especially from people looking to manage money as a career, but to borrow that money at a high rate of interest from a credit card company? Jesus fucking fuck.
And then the plot thickens. Remember back when Megan complained about being poor after school and wearing clothes that weren't brand new high end labels while living at home in Manhattan, rent free, always with cash in her pocket?
I didn't get that $100,000+ job I was expecting; I ended up in journalism, making less than half that. My loan payments ate up something like 45% of my take-home, which made it extremely difficult to live.
Poor, poor wannabe yuppie. And still, she was cheerleading for an economy that basically ran on the same premises the whole time. What a trooper.
She has also called working in journalism a charitable endeavor, because it isn't paying her like the imaginary job she felt entitled to by dint of being Megan McArdle.
Thank god being wrong means you're an expert on the topic, otherwise it'd be the case that this woman has nothing to offer.

6 comments:

Malaclypse said...

So I don't think we actually know how much of a difference consumer credit made to equalizing consumption between rich and poor.

So, the fact that poor people can go into debt way past their eyeballs makes everything okay.

Anonymous said...

When did she first start working in "journalism"? When she started at the Economist? I thought after B-school Megan worked for all these start-ups that (mysteriously) went bust. Who was paying her less than $50k/year to write? And who the fuck would pay her $50,000 to write her miserable kind of drivel?

Sergio said...

I just discovered you guys by searching "Megan McArdle" and "Hate" in google. I'm glad to know there are others who feel similar to my search quarry.

Downpuppy said...

That it never occurred to Megan that things like mortgage equity withdrawal not only are measurable, but that somebody has actually measured them is a given.

The real news is that she found a 28 page Cato report just as clueless.

Ken Houghton said...

"I didn't get that $100,000+ job I was expecting; I ended up in journalism, making less than half that."

So just about the median income for a family of four, rent-free in NYC. Not exactly poverty.

"My loan payments ate up something like 45% of my take-home, which made it extremely difficult to live."

My bullshit detector just went off. Let's do some combining data:

"I shelled out more than 40% of my really non-lavish journalist's salary when I lived in Manhattan."

All right. Now I know she's stupid. But on a purely mathematical basis, let's pretend both figures are true.

So she made $50K, of which she paid $20K in taxes--in large part because her hero, RWR, ended the tax deductibility of interest on student loans.

Which brings us to: take-home of $30K, of which "something like 45%" would be $13,500, or $1,125 per month.

Running rough numbers on the old HP-12C, it looks as if she borrowed just about $100K.

(Apropo of nothing, I note that the 2007-8 median salary of UChicago B-School grads in "Media/Entertainment" is listed as $90K, with a low of $85K)

Current tuition for 7 quarters (rough estimate from this) would be about $160K-165K.

She was working at the WTC in 2001 (age 28), so if costs there have gone up just over 5% per year, her loan total would have covered everything.

Which implies that all of those extra expenses ("I bought a car, went skiing, went to Mexico on spring break") weren't "consumption smoothing"—they were an intergenerational transfer from her mother.

Anonymous said...

Well, Megan did write that she was making less than half of $100K, so her income could be anywhere from $1.00 to $49K a year. As a "journalist," I would consider anything more than $10.00 overpayment for the quality of her services.