Thursday, April 3, 2008

A False Foreign Policy

What's more annoying than a pox-on-both-their-houses libertarian? A pox on your house. Jon Henke writes:

One big problem with the current Iraq policy is that it is pretty much unfalsifiable. Maybe it will work, maybe it won't. The lack of clear metrics and falsifiable predictions blurs the line between "has not yet succeeded" and "has failed". It would be helpful if proponents and opponents of the war would make clear, falsifiable predictions we could use to evaluate their prescriptions.

WTF? Ignoring the fact that the surge plan does have clearly articulated metrics (victory parades, political reconciliation), how in the world can a policy be falsifiable? A policy, essentially, is an action or an intended action. Only positive predictive judgments can be falsifiable. Henke needs to be Poppered in the balls.

Hey! Maybe nearly a million people will die, maybe they won't! Who knows? Who cares? Who both knows and cares? Not me! Maybe, I'm not sure--I could be wrong.

Henke then goes on to criticize a human tendency that is so inane anyone with half a brain would be embarrassed to publicly engage it. Henke actually thinks he is doing something productive by pointing out that, people use new information to support their hitherto held ideas--WOW! So when I attribute global warming as the cause of today's weather, I'm really not being objective!!!!! ZOMG stop the WordPresses!

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